Cashew Market Report

Holding Firm: Rising Replacement Costs, Shifting Trade Flows, and Tightening Forward Cover

5 MIN READ
By Juan Ayala — October 16, 2026

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What’s Happening This Month?

Vietnam’s cashew export complex continued to show firm pricing power and shifting demand dynamics. Export volumes reached 524,916 MT-up 5.4% year-over-year-while overall export revenue outpaced volume growth, climbing 8.89% YoY to USD 3.69 billion.

This widening spread reflects noticeably higher unit values across grades compared to 2025, underscoring a tighter cost environment for buyers. Underpinning this revenue growth is a significant realignment in global trade flows:

• China has officially cemented its status as Vietnam’s primary export market, taking 109,842 MT (+14.37% YoY). This sustained volume pull into China is reshaping regional product allocation and tightening spot availability for other corridors.
• The United States remains the second-largest destination at 90,285 MT, up 25.56% YoY. This surge highlights a robust recovery across North American retail channels and industrial ingredient manufacturing.

Vietnamese Cashew Kernel Export Figures (January – August 2026)

Heading into the coming quarter, the short- to medium-term market trajectory remains supported and upward-leaning, presenting specific operational considerations for procurement teams.

Forward coverage is becoming increasingly difficult to secure as origin processors are showing extreme reluctance to quote or commit to forward contracts beyond June 2027, citing limited long-term visibility into raw cashew nut (RCN) availability and steep replacement risks.

At the same time, origin is actively reducing risk in its order books. To protect balance sheets, avoid outright defaults, and secure vital RCN supply allocations for the upcoming crop cycle, suppliers are aggressively closing out earlier, low-priced forward positions.

Vietnamese Market Overview: Firm Prices & Upward Momentum

The Vietnamese cashew market began October on a steady footing, with clear upward momentum driven by elevated raw cashew nut (RCN) replacement costs and severe supply tightness in select grades.

According to the Certified Origins sourcing team, WW320 FOB prices remain in the USD 3.15–3.22/lb range (with forward offers extending up to USD 3.25/lb), continuing the firming trend observed through September.

Severe supply constraints in premium large grades have pushed WW180 higher by USD 0.07/lb to USD 4.52–4.67/lb.

Vietnamese Cashew Kernel Prices by Grade (October 2026)

Source: Certified Origins sourcing team, Vietnam

Market Demand Dynamics by Region

• United States: Strong US import demand continues to support the market, providing a core foundation for steady volume shipments alongside active China interest.
• China: Buying activity remains solid for large whole grades (WW240, WW180, A180), driven by domestic packaging requirements, festive inventory build, and expanding retail consumption.
• Europe: Europe: Major retail tenders covering forward deliveries through October 2027 have largely closed, shifting late Christmas top-up demand into the spot market.
• Middle East & Turkey: Importers maintain cautious procurement due to geopolitical tensions and freight risks, though targeted buying for high-grade whole kernels persists ahead of Ramadan and Eid.

Raw Cashew Nut (RCN) Market – High Replacement Costs

RCN prices remain firm and elevated compared with previous weeks, creating a high-cost floor that keeps kernel prices from softening despite buyer price sensitivity:

• Tanzania 2026/27 Crop: The first round of Tanzanian cashew auctions is underway, with raw material fetching high prices of USD 1,950–2,000/MT CFR Ho Chi Minh City (for 53-lb outturn). National production is projected to exceed 500,000 MT, with favorable dry conditions supporting early harvesting.
• West African Origins: End-of-season availability is limited. Indicative offers for Côte d’Ivoire (IVC, 45-lb outturn) stand firm at USD 1,555/MT, while Ghana (46-lb outturn) is quoted at USD 1,570/MT.
• Mozambique: Local industry stakeholders are setting the 2026/27 RCN reference price amid warmer, wetter weather forecasts across Nampula and Zambezia.

The cost to a processor today of buying and processing new RCN from the current or early harvest is estimated at USD 3.65–3.70/lb for WW240 and USD 3.35–3.40/lb for WW320, FOB. The gap between these replacement costs and kernel selling prices continues to squeeze processor margins. As a result, several cracking facilities in Vietnam have temporarily reduced capacity or halted operations.

International Raw Cashew Nut (RCN) Price Matrix (October 2026) and processing status

Sources: Certified Origins sourcing team

Final Thoughts on Strategic Procurement

The ongoing wave of contract resolutions highlights the operational strain that origin processors currently face. As suppliers settle out of early-year, low-priced forward positions – closing WW240 contracts previously booked at USD 3.20–3.25/lb against current spot replacement levels of USD 3.50–3.65/lb – the origin’s priority is to preserve solvency and maintain essential raw cashew nut (RCN) access for the upcoming crop cycle.

For bulk food buyers and category managers, this environment calls for a proactive, risk-managed sourcing strategy that prioritizes supply security and total delivered value.

• Maintain Disciplined Forward Coverage: Cover baseline operational requirements through the rest of Q4 2026 and Q1 2027 to protect against short-term spot price increases. However, avoid speculative over-commitment beyond mid-2027 until clear yield and quality indicators emerge from the early crop arrivals in West Africa and Cambodia.
• Monitor Landed Costs Closely: Base procurement decisions on total delivered costs, not just headline FOB quotes at origin. Ensure purchase models account for ongoing ocean freight volatility and origin outturn variances, both of which can significantly affect actual unit economics upon arrival.
• Prioritize Reliable BRC Packers: Given widespread processing margin compression, counterparty risk remains elevated. Allocate direct contracts to well-capitalized, BRC-certified packers with the working capital and balance-sheet resilience to reliably fulfill forward volumes without default or delivery delays.

Strategic procurement priorities: firm prices and upward momentum heading into the coming quarter

Certified Origins’ private-label team is ready to help you navigate this changing market.

Contact our procurement and sourcing specialists today to discuss how we can build supply resilience across your nut category programs and ensure volume continuity through the remainder of 2026.

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