California Almonds: Harvest Wrapping Up. What the New Crop Data Means for Buyers
4 MIN READ
By Juan Ayala — September 17, 2026
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What’s Happening This Month?
The California almond industry opened the 2026/27 crop year with an energetic shipment surge.
Total August shipments reached 190.1 million pounds, up +20.5% compared to last year in the same month. This momentum was fueled almost entirely by international demand.
The Almond Board adjusted its beginning inventory to reflect actual Loss & Exempt figures (2.87% actual vs. 2.0% forecast), pulling carry-in down to a cleaner 470.7 million pounds (with estimated edible carry-in at ~447 million pounds).
Field observations following the conclusion of California’s harvest highlight that shifting grade dynamics, tree stress, and constrained size availability are defining this new crop landscape.
Key Figures of the Almond Market (August 2026)
1. Cumulative Supply & Position (August 1 – August 31)
Source: Almond Board of California Position Report (Released September 10, 2026)
2. August Shipment Highlights
- Total Almonds Shipped: 190.10 million lbs (Up +20.5% YoY).
- Domestic Shipments: 46.84 million lbs (Down -3.3%; demand remains soft).
- Export Shipments: 143.25 million lbs (Up +31.0%; primary growth driver).
Regional Export Highlights
India (+170% in August): The standout story of the report. India imported 44.27 million lbs (~1,400 containers) compared to 16.38 million lbs last August. Strong holiday demand ahead of Diwali celebrations is driving immediate in-shell needs.
Western Europe (+8% in August): Shipped 43.17 million lbs. Italy led growth at 9.90M lbs (+61%), the UK doubled to 2.68M lbs (+100%), and Germany rose to 6.58M lbs (+15%). Spain dipped to 11.49M lbs (-16%), but Europe remains a stable, reliable buyer base.
Northeast Asia (+27% in August): Japan drove regional momentum at 5.27M lbs (+52%) and South Korea rose to 3.76M lbs (+18%). China/Hong Kong remained sluggish at 0.58M lbs (-52%).
Middle East & Central Asia (+6% in August): Shipping routes shifted around regional port disruptions. While the UAE dropped to 4.33M lbs (-63%), alternative trade hubs soared: Pakistan jumped to 8.19M lbs (+265%) and Turkey rose to 7.02M lbs (+113%).
California Harvest Insights & Field Observations
Although August crop receipts ended up +55% as harvest wrapped up significantly faster than last season, accelerated shaking and shelling rates do not translate to an overall larger crop harvest.
- Sizing Concerns Persist: Final crop observations confirm that almond kernels are running noticeably small. Nonpareil in the central and southern valley is averaging around 30 count per ounce, while Independence is averaging 32 count. Larger sizes (27/30 and above) availability will remain tight and command strong price premiums.
- Orchard Health: Severe mite pressure coupled with water shortages across the region from Bakersfield to Fresno led to widespread premature defoliation. This tree stress could impact next season’s bud set and 2027 crop potential.
- Quality & Yields: Quality & Yields: Early processing assessments are showing excellent structural integrity, demonstrating exceptionally low insect damage and negligible chip or scratch defects. However, field-level yields on early varieties (NP and Independence) did not improve as harvest closed out. Industry crop expectations are settling between 2.55 and 2.65 billion pounds.
Impact on Whole & Broken (W&B) Buyers
For Whole & Broken (W&B) buyers, ingredient manufacturers, confectioners, sliced/diced processors, and bakery lines, this harvest wrap-up creates a distinct advantage:
- Increased Supply: Because hulling and shelling facilities operated at rapid speeds on smaller kernel sizes, mechanical processing naturally generated a higher proportion of chipped, broken, or split kernels. While whole-kernel buyers face tight sizing, W&B material is plentiful.
- Widening Price Spread: As whole-kernel prices firm up (especially for larger sizes), the price gap between visually perfect whole nuts and manufacturing-grade W&B specifications is expanding. This offers strong cost-saving opportunities for formulations where kernel integrity is not strictly required.
- Clean Physical Quality: Processing tours confirm low insect damage and minimal defect rates. The broken piece material coming off the lines is clean, healthy nutmeat, ideal for paste, butter, snacking mixes, or further processing.
Recent Benchmarks & Price Trends
Due to smaller sizing and lighter crop expectations, port prices (FAS basis) have firmed up over the past month:
- BV Std 5: $3.30 – $3.45
- Cal SSR 25/27: $3.60 – $3.80
- Carmel Sup 27/30: $3.60 – $3.80
- NPX 23/25: $4.60 – $.4.80
Final Thoughts on Strategic Procurement
The new crop year opens with solid export momentum and a clean inventory baseline.
Because committed future sales (497.4M lbs) are running behind last year’s figures by 5.6%, suppliers are anticipating a robust purchasing cycle during the month of September.
With overall supply and demand relatively balanced, dramatic price crashes are unlikely.
- For Whole-Kernel Buyers: Buying now for late 2026 and early 2027 remains a low-risk, high-reward strategy, particularly if your brand requires larger kernel sizes (27/30 or larger), where supply will be significantly constrained.
- For Whole & Broken Buyers: Take advantage of the expanding price gap to lock in discounted Q4 and early 2027 manufacturing volumes while shellers complete their processing runs.
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