Adapting to a New Normal in Global Logistics
By Adrienne Galeas
May 29, 2026
4 MIN READ
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Sign up hereIf there’s one thing the supply chain world has learned to expect lately, it’s the unexpected. Geopolitical shifts, tariff reversals, fuel spikes, the ground keeps moving, and businesses are having to move with it.
The global shipping and logistics industry is experiencing significant headwinds due to a surge in fuel prices and subsequent bunker and fuel surcharges. In early 2026, geopolitical volatility in the Middle East, specifically impacting the Strait of Hormuz and major energy hubs, has driven Brent crude past $110-$120 per barrel. Because fuel accounts for 50% to 60% of an ocean vessel’s operating expenses and up to 50% of road transportation costs, carriers have aggressively implemented emergency surcharges to offset these pressures.
The Shift Away From Fixed-Rate Contracts
Historically, shippers could negotiate long-term, fixed-rate contracts with ocean carriers to keep logistics budgets stable. According to reports from New Silk Road Network, the extreme volatility of marine fuel has pushed ocean freight away from these fixed structures. Carriers are now moving toward weekly adjustments to the Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF) and introducing non-refundable Emergency Bunker Surcharges (EBS). This ongoing fluctuation requires global companies to maintain greater budget flexibility, as the final invoice for a single container can shift meaningfully between booking and port arrival.
Margin Pressure and the Pass-Through to Consumers
For many businesses, absorbing a 10 to 15% week-on-week increase in all-in freight pricing is unsustainable. As detailed by ePost Global, brands are adapting their checkout systems to recalculate and pass fuel surcharges directly to consumers in real time. E-commerce companies have broadly implemented “fuel and logistics-related surcharges” to protect their margins amid these conditions.
Alongside rising freight costs, businesses are also grappling with a rapidly shifting tariff landscape.
U.S. Tariff Shifts and the Race for Duty Refunds
The implementation of U.S. tariff shifts, including the 10% universal baseline import tariff, has created significant waves across global trade networks. The Supreme Court’s ruling in Learning Resources, Inc. v. Trump, which struck down the multi-billion dollar tariffs enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), has caused an unprecedented rush for an estimated $166 billion in duty refunds.
Cost Pressures on Small-and-Medium Businesses (SMBs)
While large corporations have more capital to absorb or navigate new duties, smaller businesses are feeling the impact more acutely. A survey published by Ship4wd reveals that 96% of U.S. small businesses say tariffs have directly affected their sourcing and shipping operations, with nearly a third anticipating significant disruption. Unlike larger players, SMBs often have less leverage to share tariff costs with foreign suppliers, leading to margin compression and difficult decisions around pricing.
The Challenges of “Liquidation Status” Mapping
From a trade compliance standpoint, a company’s refund strategy depends on the exact legal status of each import shipment. Importers are working carefully to map their entry portfolios across three categories:
- Unliquidated Entries: Open entries are being processed to exclude IEEPA duties, though CBP is working through these over time.
- Liquidated Entries (Within 180 Days): Importers have a strict 180-day window from the date of liquidation to file a formal CBP Protest. Missing this deadline closes the standard administrative path to a refund.
- Liquidated Entries (Outside 180 Days): For entries that closed earlier, importers may need to pursue more complex legal channels, often with the support of specialized customs attorneys.
In these times, staying flexible, embracing diversification, and being willing to pivot are what separate businesses that weather the storm from those that don’t. The ground keeps shifting, but with the right tools, so can you.
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